ANALYSIS OF FACTORS AFFECTING INDONESIAN RUBBER VOLUME EXPORTS TO CHINA

Abstract

By                   : Nofita Sari              

Advisor I         : Dr. Alvis Rozani, S.E, M.Si 

Advisor  II      : Drs. Firdaus Sy,MP

SUMMARY

International trade is a trading activity performed by a resident of another country on the basis of an agreement. International trade increases with economic openness, prices play an important role in international trade, the price difference causes a country to export or import goods and services, international trade will involve various currencies so that exchange rate (exchange rate) becomes important in inter-economic interaction country.

This study aims to determine the factors that affect the export volume of Indonesian rubber to China. The independent variables included in this study are Indonesian rubber production, international rubber price, GDP per capita of China, rupiah exchange rate against US Dollar. While the dependent variable in this study is the export volume of Indonesian rubber to China.

The data used in this research is the time series data during the period of 1997-2016 with the amount of data as much as 20. The data obtained is analyzed through Error Corection Model (ECM) by using Eviews program. To see the existence of long term relationship used Cointegration test. Meanwhile, to see the short-term relationship used Error Corection Term used..

The results of this research In the short term and in the long term rubber production is positively related to the export volume of Indonesian rubber to China. The international rubber price has a positive relationship to the export volume of Indonesian rubber to China both in the short term and in the long term. China's GDP per capita has a positive relationship in the short term, while in the long run China's GDP per capita has a negative relationship to the export volume of Indonesian rubber to China. exchange rates have positive effects both in the long run and in the short term.

Keywords: Rubber Production, International Rubber Price, China GDP, Exchange Rate, Export Volume