ANALISIS PENGARUH INFLASI, PENGANGGURAN, DAN EKSPOR TERHADAP PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI INDONESIA

Abstract

This research was conducted to analyse the variables influencing economic growth, such as
inflation, unemployment, and exports. The study employs a dynamic Error Correction Model
(ECM) using the Domowitz-Elbadawi approach. The use of the ECM model as the research
method aims to determine whether the variables exhibit long-term or short-term relationships.
The data utilised consist of secondary sources from 1990 to 2024, previously published by
organisations such as the Central Statistics Agency (BPS), the World Bank, and the
International Monetary Fund (IMF). After data processing, the results indicate that in the long
term, inflation and exports jointly have a positive and significant effect on economic growth,
whereas unemployment has a negative but significant impact on Indonesia's economic growth.
In the short term, inflation has a positive and significant effect on economic growth;
unemployment has a negative but insignificant effect; and exports have a positive but
insignificant impact on Indonesia’s economic growth.s