ANALISIS NILAI TUKAR RIIL DI INDONESIA TAHUN 1985-2014 (Pendekatan Error Correction Model)

Abstract

Abstract
The purpose of this research is to prove whether in the short term and long term of the inflation variable, GDP, SBI rate, trade balance and economy crisis in 1998 have an influence on the real exchange rate in Indonesia (Rp/USD). The data that is used in this research is time series data that is started from 1985 until 2014. The data is obtained from Indonesian Bank, Central Agency on Statistics, and International Financial Statistic report. To see the relationship in the long term, we use cointegration test while in the short term, we use Error Correction Model approach.
The results showed that in the short term, there was only SBI rate variable that has significant influence on the real exchange rate in Indonesia (Rp/USD). On the other hand, in the long term GDP variable, SBI rate, trade balance have significant influence on the real exchange rate in Indonesia (Rp/USD). While economy crisis in 1998 has no influence on the real exchange rate in Indonesia (Rp/USD).
Key words : Real Exchange Rate, Inflation, GDP, SBI Rate, Trade Balance, Economy Crisis in 1998, Error Correction Model.