ANALISIS FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI NERACA PERDAGANGAN MIGAS DI INDONESIA (Pendekatan Error Correction Model

Abstract

The purpose of this research is to prove whether in the short term and long term of the
variabel oil consumtion, crude oil prices, dan nilai kurs memiliki pengaruh terhadap trade
balance migas in Indonesia. The data that is used in this research is time series data that is
started from 1980 sampai dengan tahun 2015, The data is obtained from Central Agency
on Statistics, Word Bank, Energy Information And Administration (EIA), Economic
Mineral Resources (ESDM), Energy International statistics. To see the relationship in the
long term, we use cointegration test while in the short term, we use Error Correction
Model approach. results showed that in the short term, there was only concution oil, that
has significant trade balance migas in Indonesia. On the other hand, in the long term
variabel concumtion oil, crude oil prices, have significant trade balance migas in
Indonesia.
Keyword : Trade Balance Migas, Oil Concumtion, Crude Oil Prices, Kurs,
Error Correction Model.