ANALISA PERAMALAN TINGKAT PERMINTAAN KONSUMEN DI PERUSAHAAN PENJUAL SPARE PART MOBIL

Abstract

Forecasting is an attempt to predict the future state based on the information in the past. In a business, businessmant can be more quickly and precisely in taking decisions needed to maintain and continue the business. In this study discusses the types of goods such as spare parts. Ten types of spare parts are use. The spare parts has the data pattern that are different from other kinds of goods, because it is not always there is a demand in each period (intermittent). Three methods intermittent demand forecasting are used Single Exponential Smoothing (SES), Croston's and Syntetos Boylan Approximation. By applying the eight methods of forecasting error, forecasting method chosen by the criteria of forecasting that has the smallest error. This study aims to determine the appropriate methods for some components of cars sold in the Toyota Auto service, analyze the results forecast in conjunction with the inventory cost and opportunity cost. This study attempts to look at the suitability of the results obtained from processing the data with the results of research Syntetos and Boylan (2005). With the limited amount of research in this area, there should be other studies relevant to the topic. Results of this study are expected to contribute in a real system, especially for owners of Toyota Auto Service, but also to contribute in the fields of science, especially in the research area of business forecasting.

Keywords: forecasting, intermittent demand, the decision - making inventory.