PENETAPAN TARGET PRODUKSI BERDASARKAN HASIL FORECASTING (STUDI KASUS PADA PERUSAHAAN PERKEBUNAN DAN PRODUKSI TEH DI WILAYAH KAYU ARO PROVINSI JAMBI)

Abstract

This research is a research in the area Forecasting. The research was conducted in a tea plantation company which is also produce tea. There are two types of tea as the objects of this research, CTC and Ortodoks. The level of production is determined by the company every year and it was much larger than the level of production per year. The purpose of the study is to evaluate the production target of tea in the company where the case study is carried out by considering the results of forecasting of the demand. There are three forecasting methods applied - Metode Moving Average, Metode Double Moving Average, dan Metode Single Exponential Smoothing. The forecast accuracy also measured by applying Mean Absolute Deviation method. The data collection was conducted for twelve months’ demand data in 2020. The result show that the production target is much larger than the forecasting results. On the other hand, it is close to the amount of the level of production of tea in every year. The findings could be the information in defining the target of production. Keywords: Forecasting, Target of Productioni, Production Planning